Eritrea Likely To Present Few Influential Roles For Non-State Actors Over The Next Five Years
Executive Summary:
In the likely event that Eritrea and Ethiopia do not resume a full scale conflict over border disputes (see discussion ) non-state actors are likely to onlyplay minimal roles over the next five years in Eritrea. This is primarily due to Eritrea's strong centralized authority, aggressive persecution of political dissidents, and weak civil society. Eritrea is particularly difficult for lawful business actors. The private sector is extremely weak. Eritrea aggressively pursues economic engagement with China. Chinese companies are highly likely to demonstrate contract favoritism in bidding for develop projects. The Doing Business Variable score of 4 on the Extra-State side of the role potential spectrum indicates a large potential for unlawful actors. The opaque quality of Eritrean society likely obscures much of the illegal activity conducted within its borders. International arms smugglers/dealers likely have the most significant role as Eritrea likely serves as a conduit between insurgents/terrorist groups and international suppliers of arms. Failed State (0), Democracy (1EG), and Corruption (1GS) variable scores are relatively consistent with totalitarian regimes indicating very little potential for NSA to play a significant influential role Eritrea.
Eritrea Likely To Present Few Influential Roles For Non-State Actors Over The Next Five Years
Executive Summary:In the likely event that Eritrea and Ethiopia do not resume a full scale conflict over border disputes (see discussion ) non-state actors are likely to onlyplay minimal roles over the next five years in Eritrea. This is primarily
Analytic Confidence: 6
Source Reliability: 8
Discussion: Full Scale Conflict Unlikely To Resume Between Ethiopia And Eritrea